Showing posts with label change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label change. Show all posts

August 2016 another month above Paris Agreement guardrail

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[ click on images to enlarge ]
August 2016 was the warmest August in 136 years of modern record-keeping, according to a NASA news release and as illustrated by the image on the right.

The seasonal cycle makes that temperature typically peaks in July. Nonetheless, August 2016 wound up tied with July 2016 for the warmest month ever recorded.

So, when incorporating the seasonal cycle, it was more than 2°C or 3.6°F warmer in July and August 2016 than it used to be.

It's important to compare the temperature rise with preindustrial levels, given that end last year at the Paris Agreement countries pledged to keep temperatures from rising by more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. NASA typically calculates anomalies by comparing temperatures with the period from 1951 to 1980, so without adjustment and without including seasonal cycle, the picture looks like the one below.


The added polynomial trendline shows that the anomaly grows, when comparing the temperature rise with an period that goes back further. On the image below, a 0.28°C adjustment is applied to the data, to bring the baseline back to the year 1900.


Going back further than 1900 will result in even higher anomalies, as illustrated by the image below that applies a 0.58°C adjustment to cater for the rise before 1951-1980, as discussed in an earlier post, resulting in an August 2016 anomaly of 1.56°C.

As above image also shows, temperatures have been more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for most of the past 12 months.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

- Climate Plan
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

- How Much Warming Have Humans Caused?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

- NASA Analysis Finds August 2016 Another Record Monthhttp://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20160912


Action must be taken now

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Some of the world's most preeminent climate scientists, all experts with many decades of experience in their respective field, are warning that effective action must be taken now to avoid catastrophe.

These scientists, and many others, have made valuable and much-appreciated contributions to the Arctic-news blog over the years [note: contributors each express their own views in posts and may or may not endorse other content of this blog].

Sam Carana, editor of this blog, has for years supported the calls of these scientists, also discussing and sharing their calls at facebook groups such as Arctic-News, Electric TransportRenewables and Climate Alert.


Furthermore, Sam Carana has called for specific action for years, including support for biochar, preferably through feebates. More specifically, Sam Carana recommends that revenues raised from fees imposed on sales of livestock products, nitrogen fertilizers and Portland cement are used to fund support for soil supplements, as illustrated by above image. For more on biochar, see this blog and this facebook group.

For years, Sam Carana has also called for more R&D in specific areas of geo-engineering. For more on this, see this blog and this facebook group.

More generally, Sam Carana advocates the Climate Plan, which calls for a global commitment to parallel lines of action while seeking to delegate implementation to local communities, preferably through effective policies such as local feebates.

This blog has had some success in spreading this message. To date, Sam Carana has received 82,327,368 views at Google plus (see screenshot on the right), while this blog has received 3,255,445 views (see update of views in the panel further on the right).

Your continued support is needed to share this message, so please join one or more of the above-mentioned groups, and share and like the images of this post in emails, on facebook and other social media.

Regarding the urgency to act, the images below give an update on the terrifying situation in the Arctic, where the sea ice is disappearing fast.

The decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic goes hand in hand with rising sea surface temperatures that contribute to sea ice getting ever thinner.

The image on the right show Arctic sea ice on September 1, 2016, with thickness in meters.

The warming of the oceans is illustrated by the images below.

The image directly below shows sea surface temperature (left) and anomalies compared to 1981-2011 (right).


The image below also shows sea surface temperature anomalies, this time compared to 1971-2000.


Global warming has hit the Arctic particularly hard over the past 365 days, with anomalies exceeding the top end of the scale over most of the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.


The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.

High Temperatures In Arctic

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0-2000 m Global Ocean Heat Content
Ocean heat content is rising, as illustrated by the image on the right. Where the sea ice declines, this is causing high air temperatures in the Arctic.

This year (from January to April 2016) on the Northern Hemisphere, oceans were 0.85°C or 1.53°F warmer than the 20th century average.

The image below illustrates that temperatures look set to be high in Siberia for the coming week. The panel on the right shows anomalies at the top end of the scale in Eastern Siberia on June 5, 2016, while the panel on the right shows a forecast for June 12, 2016.


These high air temperatures are causing feedbacks that are in turn further speeding up warming in the Arctic.

Warmer Rivers

Temperatures as high as 28.9°C or 83.9°F were recorded over the Mackenzie River close to the Arctic Ocean on June 13, 2016, at location marked by the green circle.


Below is a satellite image of the Mackenzie River delta on June 11, 2016


The image below shows that temperatures as high as 36.6°C or 97.8°F were forecast for June 13, 2016, over the Yenisei River in Siberia that ends in the Arctic Ocean.


Wildfires

Earlier this month, temperatures in Eastern Siberia were as high as 29.5°C (85°F). This was on June 5, 2016, at a location close to the coast of the Arctic Ocean (green circle).


High air temperatures come with increased risk of wildfires, as illustrated by the image below showing carbon monoxide levels as high as 2944 ppb on June 4, 2016 (at green circle).


The satellite image below zooms into the area with these high carbon monoxide readings, showing wildfires on Kamchatka Peninsula on June 3, 2016.


Albedo Loss

The image on the right shows that, this year, April snow cover on the Northern Hemisphere was the lowest on record. The added trend points at a total absence of snow by the year 2036.

Professor Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Cambridge University, says: “My prediction remains that the Arctic ice may well disappear, that is, have an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year.”

Warming due to Arctic snow and ice loss may well exceed 2 W per square meter, i.e. it could more than double the net warming now caused by all emissions by people of the world, Peter Wadhams calculated in 2012.

Seafloor Methane

Peter Wadhams further co-authored a study that calculated that methane release from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean could yield 0.6°C warming of the planet in 5 years (see video interview of Thom Hartmann with Peter Wadhams below).



Combined Impact Of Multiple Feebacks

In conclusion, high air temperatures in the Arctic are very worrying, as they can trigger a number of important feedbacks, i.e. the ones discussed above and further feedbacks such as:
  • Changes to Jet Streams. As the Arctic warms more rapidly than the rest of Earth, changes are occurring to the jet streams. As a result, winds can increasingly bring hot air far to the north, resulting in further loss of the Arctic snow and ice cover, in turn further warming up the Arctic.
  • Warmer Rivers. High air temperatures cause warming of the water of rivers that end up in the Arctic Ocean, thus resulting in additional sea ice decline and warming of the Arctic Ocean all the way down to the seabed.
  • Wildfires. High air temperatures set the scene for wildfires that emit not only greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, but also pollutants such as carbon monoxide that depletes hydroxyl that could otherwise break down methane, and black carbon that, when settling on ice, causes it to absorb more sunlight (see under albedo loss), besides being a climate forcer when in the atmosphere.
  • Soil destabilization. Heatwaves and droughts destabilize the soil. Soil that was previously known as permafrost, was until now held together by ice. As the ice melts, organic material in the soil starts decomposing, resulting in emissions of methane and carbon dioxide, while the soil becomes increasingly vulnerable to wildfires.
  • Buffer Loss. Arctic snow and ice cover acts as a buffer, absorbing heat that in the absence of this buffer will have to be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one
  • Albedo Loss. Arctic snow and ice cover make that sunlight is reflected back into space. In the absence of this cover, the Arctic will have to absorb more heat.
  • Seafloor Methane. As sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean warm, hydrates contained in these sediments could be destabilized and release huge quantities of methane.

How much warmer could it be within one decade?

The two feedbacks mentioned by Peter Wadham (albedo and seafloor methane) are are depicted in the image below.

for further discussion, see the feedbacks page
The combined global temperature rise over the next decade due to these two feedbacks (albedo and seafloor methane) alone may be 0.4°C or 0.72°F for a low-rise scenario and may be 2.7°C or 4.9°F for a high-rise scenario.

Additionally, as temperatures rise, further feedbacks will kick in more strongly, further accelerating the rise in temperature, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

When also including further feedbacks, warming could exceed 10°C (18°F) within one decade, assuming that no geoengineering will take place within a decade, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.

Links

- Feedbacks in the Arctic
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

- East Siberian Heatwave
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/07/east-siberian-heat-wave.html

- Wildfire Danger Increasing
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/wildfire-danger-increasing.html

- Albedo changes in the Arctic
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/albedo-change-in-arctic.html

- Three kinds of warming in the Arctic
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/02/three-kinds-of-warming-in-arctic.html

- Arctic could become ice-free for first time in more than 100,000 years, claims leading scientist
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

- Greenhouse gas levels and temperatures keep rising
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/01/greenhouse-gas-levels-and-temperatures-keep-rising.html

- Arctic Methane Release: "Economic Time Bomb"
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/arctic-methane-release-economic-time-bomb.html

- February Temperature
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/03/february-temperature.html

- September 2015 Sea Surface Warmest On Record

How Much Warming Have Humans Caused?

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How much did temperatures rise since 1900?

Differences in baseline (reference period) can result in dramatic differences in temperature rise. The U.K. Met Office HadCRUT4 dataset typically presents temperature anomalies relative to a 1961-1990 baseline. NASA typically uses a 1951-1980 baseline, but the NASA website allows for different baselines to be selected. When selecting a 1961-1990 baseline, the temperature of the past period of six months was 1.05°C (1.89°F) higher than this baseline, as illustrated by the NASA map in the left panel of the image below. But when compared to 1890-1910, the temperature of the past period of six months was 1.48°C (or 2.664°F) higher, as illustrated by the NASA map in the right panel of the image below.


A polynomial trend can reduce variability such as caused by volcanoes and El Niño events. The graph below was created with the NASA L-OTI monthly mean global surface temperature anomaly, which has a 1951-1980 baseline, and then with 0.29°C added, which makes the anomaly 0°C in the year 1900 for the added polynomial trend.



This gives an idea of how much temperatures have risen since the year 1900, with a rise for both February and March 2016 showing up that was more than 1.5°C, as also illustrated by the image below. The trend further points at temperature anomalies that will be more than 1.5°C (from 1900) within a decade and more than 2°C soon thereafter.



Temperature Rise before 1900


To see by how much temperatures have risen compared to pre-industrial levels, we need to go back further than 1900. The graph below shows that carbon dioxide concentrations have gone up and down between roughly 180 ppm and 280 ppm over the past 800,000 years and did recently reach a peak of 411 ppm (peak hourly average on May 11, 2016).


The graph below, from an earlier post, shows how in the past, over the past 420,000 years, temperatures (and levels of CO2 and CH4) have gone up and down by some 10°C, in line with the Milankovitch cycles.


Historically, carbon dioxide rises of 100 ppm have gone hand in hand with temperature rises of some 10°C. The recent rise in carbon dioxide concentrations is a 131 ppm rise (from some 280 ppm to 411 ppm). The rise in methane concentrations is even steeper. Could we therefore expect a temperature rise of more than 10°C to happen, and if so how soon could this eventuate? As described below, warming caused by humans could result in a temperature rise of more than 10°C (18°F) within a decade.

The graph on the right, created by Jos Hagelaars, shows that temperatures started rising some 20,000 years ago, reaching a peak some 7000 years ago (in the blue part of the graph). For more detail, also see the comic added at the end of this post.

The graph underneath, based on work by Marcott et al., focuses on this blue part of the graph, while using a 1961-1990 baseline. Temperatures reached a peak some 7000 years ago, and then came down to reach a low a few hundred years ago.

The peak and the bottom temperatures (highlighted in red on image on the right below) for that period suggest there was a fall of more than 0.7°C.

So, a few hundred years ago, temperatures were falling and they would have kept falling, in line with the Milankovitch cycles, had there been no warming caused by humans.

From that bottom point, temperatures first rose by about 0.4°C, overwhelming the downward trend that would otherwise have taken temperatures down further, and then there was an additional rise of at least 1.05°C, when using a baseline of 1961-1990, indicating that humans caused a total of at least 1.45°C warming.

Lewis & Maslin (2015) suggest that, since CO2 began to rise from a low point in 1610, that year could be taken as the start of the Anthropocene. The image on the right also shows that the year 1750 was a low point for CO2 levels and temperature, i.e. well below the baseline of 1961-1990.

The image on the right, from BerkeleyEarth.org, shows CO2 levels and temperatures rising hand in hand from 1750.

Humans have caused even more warming

The situation looks to be even worse than what the above figures may suggest. Indeed, the bottom low point in the Marcott graph would have been even lower had there been no warming by humans. 

The fact that humans did cause substantial warming between 1800 and 1900 is illustrated by the graph below, from a recent post by Michael Mann, who adds that some 0.3°C greenhouse warming had already taken place between the year 1800 and the year 1900.
Some 0.3C greenhouse warming had already taken place by 1900, and some 0.2C warming by 1870
Further studies suggest that humans also caused substantial warming well before 1800, as illustrated by the image on the right. While this study focuses on Europe, it does suggest a rise from 1600 to 1800.

Another example of warming caused by humans before 1800 is presented in research by Dull et al., which suggests that burning of Neotropical forests increased steadily in the Americas, peaking at a time when Europeans arrived in the late fifteenth century. By 1650, some 95% of the indigenous population had perished. Regrowth of forests led to carbon sequestration of some 2 to 5 Pg C, thereby contributing to a fall in atmospheric carbon dioxide recorded in Antarctic ice cores from about 1500 through 1750.

Since at least the fourth century A.D., coal has
been burned in China. W. F. Ruddiman further points in a 2007 paper at human emissions from burning biomass and irrigation, livestock and human waste, and the resulting climate system feedbacks. As illustrated by the image on the right, this had already caused substantial warming prior to the industrial revolution.

In conclusion, substantial warming took place before 1900, making that temperatures were higher than what they would have been had humans caused no warming. Greenhouse gases emitted by people held off a temperature fall that would otherwise have naturally occurred, and they caused a temperature rise on top of that.

Paris Agreement

NASA data suggest that it was 1.48°C (or 2.664°F) warmer than in 1890-1910 for the period from November 2015 to April 2016. Note again that this 1890-1910 baseline is much later than pre-industrial times. The Paris Agreement had pledged to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. On land on the Northern Hemisphere, it was 1.99°C (or 3.582°F) warmer (right map of the image below).

[ Temperature anomalies for the period from November 2015 to April 2016, see also comments ]
The above images only account for a half-year period (November 2015 to April 2016), so they are only indicative for what the total rise will be for the year 2016. Nonetheless, when taking into account warming caused by people before 1900, the year 2016 looks set to hit or even exceed the guardrails that the Paris Agreement had pledged would not be crossed. The situation looks even worse when considering that temperatures measured in ice cores already included a substantial amount of warming due to humans even before the start of the Industrial Revolution.

February 2016 was 1.67°C (3°F) warmer than 1890-1910
Again, at the Paris Agreement nations pledged to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

When looking at a single month, February 2016 was 1.67°C (3°F) warmer than 1890-1910 (see image right). When adding a mere 0.34°C to account for warming before 1900, total warming in February 2016 did exceed 2°C. Looking at it that way, the guardrails set in Paris in December 2015 were already crossed in February 2016.

Situation

So, what is the situation? On the one hand, there's the current observed temperature rise (∆O). This rise is typically calculated as the difference between the current temperature and the temperature at a given baseline.

However, this ∆O does not reflect the full impact of human emissions. Temperatures would have been lower had there been no emissions by humans. The full warming impact due to people's emissions therefore is ∆E. This ∆E is higher than the often-used observed rise, since the baseline would have been lower without warming caused by humans.

At the same time, part of global warming caused by people is currently masked due the aerosol emissions (∆A). Such aerosol emissions result mainly from burning of fossil fuel and biomass. There's no doubt that such emissions should be reduced, but the fact remains that the current temperature rise may increase substantially, say, by half when the masking effect disappears.

Thus, the full (unmasked) current warming caused by humans is the sum of these two, i.e. ∆E + ∆A, and the sum could be as high as 3°C or even more than 5°C.

In addition, there is a future temperature rise that's already baked into the cake (∆F). Some feedbacks are not yet very noticeable, since some changes take time to become more manifest, such as melting of sea ice and non-linear changes due to feedbacks that are only now starting to kick in. Furthermore, the full effect of CO2 emissions reaches its peak only a decade after emission, while even with the best efforts, humans are likely to still be causing additional emissions over the coming decade. All such factors could jointly result in a temperature rise greater than ∆E + ∆A together, i.e. ∆F could alone cause a temperature rise of more than 5°C within a decade.

In summary, total warming caused by humans (∆E + ∆A + ∆F) could be more than 10°C (18°F) within one decade, assuming that no geoengineering will take place within a decade.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

[ image from xkcd.com/1732 ]


Links

- Methane Erupting From East Siberian Arctic Shelf
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/11/methane-erupting-from-east-siberian-arctic-shelf.html

- Jos Hagelaars' graph, created with graphs by Shakun et al., Marcott et al. and more, is at:
https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/03/19/the-two-epochs-of-marcott/

- Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation, by Shakun et al. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html

- A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, by Marcott et al.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1198

- The Columbian Encounter and the Little Ice Age: Abrupt Land Use Change, Fire, and Greenhouse Forcing, by Dull et al., in:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/columbus-arrival-linked-carbon-dioxide-drop

- Arctic Climate Records Melting
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/arctic-climate-records-melting.html

- 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility, Ulf Büntgen et al. (2011)


Ten Degrees Warmer In A Decade?

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In 2015, mean global carbon dioxide grew by 3.09 parts per million (ppm), more than in any year since the record started in 1959. An added polynomial trendline points at a growth of 5 ppm by 2026 (a decade from now) and of 6 ppm by 2029.

NOAA data, added trend points at 5 ppm growth a decade from now
There are a number of elements that determine how much the total temperature rise will be, say, a decade from now:

Rise 1900-2016: In January 2016, it was 1.92°C (3.46°F) warmer on land than in January 1890-1910, as discussed in an earlier post that also featured the image below.

Rise before 1900: Before 1900, temperature had already risen by ~0.3°C (0.54°F), as Dr. Michael Mann points out.

Rise 2016-2026: The image at the top shows a trend pointing at 5 ppm growth a decade from now. If levels of carbon dioxide and further greenhouse gases keep rising, then that will account for additional warming over the next ten years. Even with dramatic cuts in carbon dioxide emissions, temperatures will keep rising, as maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission, so the full wrath of the carbon dioxide emissions over the past ten years is still to come.

Removal of aerosols: With dramatic cuts in emissions, there will also be a dramatic fall in aerosols that currently mask the full warming of greenhouse gases. From 1850 to 2010, anthropogenic aerosols brought about a decrease of ∼2.53 K, says a recent paper. In addition, people will have emitted a lot more aerosols since 2010.

Albedo change: Warming due to Arctic snow and ice loss may well exceed 2 W per square meter, i.e. it could more than double the net warming now caused by all emissions by people of the world, calculated Professor Peter Wadhams in 2012.

Methane eruptions from the seafloor: ". . . we consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time," Dr. Natalia Shakhova et al. wrote in a paper presented at EGU General Assembly 2008. Authors found that such a release would cause 1.3°C warming by 2100. Note that such warming from an extra 50 Gt of methane seems conservative when considering that there now is only some 5 Gt of methane in the atmosphere, and over a period of ten years this 5 Gt is already responsible for more warming than all the carbon dioxide emitted by people since the start of the industrial revolution.

Water vapor feedback: Water vapour feedback acting alone approximately doubles the warming from what it would be for fixed water vapour. Furthermore, water vapour feedback acts to amplify other feedbacks in models, such as cloud feedback and ice albedo feedback. If cloud feedback is strongly positive, the water vapour feedback can lead to 3.5 times as much warming as would be the case if water vapour concentration were held fixed, according to the IPCC.

The image below puts these elements together in two scenarios, one with a relatively low temperature rise of 3.5°C (6.3°F) and another one with a relatively high temperature rise of 10°C (18°F).

Temperature rise on land a decade from now (without geoengineering)
Note that the above scenarios assume that no geoengineering will take place within a decade.
[ click on images to enlarge ]

As described above, the January 2016 temperature anomaly on land compared to January 1890-1910 was 1.92°C (3.46°F). Globally, the anomaly was 1.53°C (2.75°F), as shown by the image top right.

Putting the elements together for two global scenarios will result in a total rise of 3.11°C (5.6°F) for a relatively low global temperature rise and 9.61°C (17.3°F) for a relatively high global temperature rise, as shown by the image bottom right.

So, will climate catastrophe occur in a decade or later? There are many indications that the odds are large and growing rapidly. Some say climate catastrophe is inevitable or is already upon us. Others may like to believe the odds were rather small. Even so, the magnitude of the devastation makes it imperative to start taking comprehensive and effective action now.


The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.



In 2015, mean global CO2 grew by 3.09 parts per million, more than in any year since the record started in 1959. An...
Posted by Sam Carana on Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Methane's Role in Arctic Warming

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Arctic Ocean hit most strongly by global warming



Over the past 12 months, global warming was felt most strongly over the Arctic Ocean, as above image illustrates. Over most parts of the Arctic Ocean, surface temperatures were above the top end of the scale, i.e. more than 2.5°C higher than in 1981-2010.

In January 2016, air temperatures close to sea level (at 925 hPa) were more than 6°C or 13°F above average across most of the Arctic Ocean, as NSIDC.org announced recenty. Moreover, daily average temperatures over many parts of the Arctic Ocean often exceed the top end of the scale, i.e. 20°C or 36°F higher than in 1979-2000, as illustrated by the Climate Reanalyzer forecast below.


So, how can temperature anomalies over the Arctic Ocean at this time of year be so much higher than elsewhere on Earth?

One factor is feedbacks such as changes to the jet stream and decline of snow and ice cover in the Arctic that makes that ever more sunlight is getting absorbed by the water of the Arctic Ocean, in turn causing further decline, as discussed in many earlier posts.

Right now, however, warming over the Arctic Ocean is very pronounced at a time of year when there is a wider temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator, while there is little or no sunlight reaching the Arctic. So, albedo changes are less relevant, while changes to the jet stream would be expected to be less prominent now. Nonetheless, a strongly deformed jet stream can push a lot of warm air all the way up to the North Pole, while pushing a lot of cold air out of the Arctic over North America, as illustrated by the forecast on the right.

Let's look at some further factors that are at work.

High levels of greenhouse gases over the Arctic


The question was, why is warming hitting to Arctic Ocean so strongly at this time of year? Greenhouse gas levels are higher over the Arctic than elsewhere on Earth. Greenhouse gases trap heat that would otherwise be radiated out to space, and this greenhouse effect is occurring all year long.

[ click on images to enlarge them ]
Let's look more closely at carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. On February 4, 2016, CO2 level at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 405.83 ppm, as illustrated by the image on the right

The image below shows that global mean CO2 level on February 6, 2016, was 407 ppm at an altitude close to sea level (972 mb). The image also shows higher CO2 levels at higher latitudes north, with levels over 410 ppm showing up over most of the Northern Hemisphere. 




Carbon dioxide levels on Feb. 8, 2016, were as high as 416 ppm at a location over the Kara Sea (marked by the green circle at the top of the image on the right).

Nonetheless, the levels of carbon dioxide over the Arctic Ocean are not that much higher than elsewhere, i.e. not enough to explain such huge temperature anomalies.

Methane, another greenhouse gas, is also present over the Arctic Ocean at levels that are higher than the rest of the world, as illustrated by the image below, showing methane levels over 1900 ppb over most of the Arctic Ocean on February 4, 2016. 


In the case of methane, the situation is different than for carbon dioxide:
  • levels at the North Pole are more than 10% higher than at the South Poles, a much larger difference than for carbon dioxide. 
  • methane is reaching its highest levels over the Arctic Ocean from October onward to well into the next year. 
  • methane persists longer over the Arctic due to low hydroxyl levels there. 
  • methane levels over the Arctic Ocean are high, as increasingly large amounts of methane are rising up from the Arctic Ocean seafloor, making that this methane will inherently be highly concentrated over the Arctic, especially shortly after its release. 

In conclusion, it looks like methane is playing an increasingly large role in warming up the Arctic, especially given its large short-term potency as a greenhouse gas.

from: arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/methane.html

AMOC is carrying ever more heat into the Arctic Ocean

Besides methane, there is another big reason why temperature anomalies are so high over Arctic Ocean at this time of year. Huge amounts of heat are rising up from the water into the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, warming up the air over the water. The warmer the sea, the less ice will form. The weaker the ice, the more cracks and spots where heat gets transferred to the atmosphere.

The water of the Arctic Ocean is getting warmer, compared to previous years, as the Gulf Stream heats up. When referring to the full length from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean, this current is often referred to as the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The direction of AMOC's flow is determined by two forces, i.e. the flow of warm water from the Equator to the north, and the the flow east due to the Coriolis force. The result is warm, salty water is carried by AMOC in the upper layers of the Atlantic toward the north-east, to Arctic Ocean. Eventually, the water sinks and flows back as colder water through the deep Atlantic. As the NOAA image below shows, the amount of heat that has been carried by AMOC toward the Arctic Ocean has been increasing over the past few years.



Overall ocean temperatures are increasing, as discussed in posts such as Ocean Heat and Temperature Rise. As a result, more heat is getting carried toward the Arctic Ocean now. The Gulf Stream off the coast of North America is warming up strongly and is pushing more heat toward the Arctic ocean, compared to previous years. The result is illustrated by the image below, showing huge sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic Ocean near Svalbard, despite the cold lid on the north Atlantic, indicating that the heat is continuing to travel underneath the cold freshwater lid to the Arctic Ocean.


Such high sea surface temperature anomalies are not uncommon in the Arctic Ocean these days. The image below shows that on January 24, 2016, sea surface temperature was 12.3°C or 54.2°F at a location near Svalbard marked by the green circle, a 10.4°C or 18.7°F anomaly.

from: Arctic sea ice area at record low for time of year
Water now much warmer off the North American coast

The water off the east coast of North America is much warmer than it used to be due to emissions that extend from North America over the Atlantic Ocean due to the Coriolis force. The image below, from an earlier post, shows carbon dioxide levels as high as 511 ppm over New York on November 5, 2015, and as high as 500 ppm over the water off the coast of coast of New Jersey on November 2, 2015.

from the post: 2015 warmest year on record
The image below shows carbon monoxide levels. Carbon monoxide depletes hydroxyl, making it harder for methane to be oxidized. So again methane appears to be a major factor.

from: Arctic sea ice area at record low for time of year
Such emissions heat up the Gulf Stream and make that ever warmer water is carried underneath the sea surface all the way into the Arctic Ocean. 

Cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic

Finally, the cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic makes that less heat transfer occurs from ocean to atmosphere. This cold freshwater lid makes that more heat is flowing toward the Arctic Ocean just below the sea surface of the North Atlantic. 

sea ice speed and drift, forecast for February 18, 2016
This cold freshwater lid is spreading over the North Atlantic for a number of reasons: 
  • more melting of glaciers on Greenland, on Svalbard and in North Canada; 
  • more sea ice drifting into the Atlantic Ocean due to stronger winds. Storms move up the Atlantic in a circular way, speeding up sea ice drift along the edges of Greenland, as illustrated by this video and the images on the right;
  • stronger evaporation off the east coast of North America, with moisture being carried by stronger winds to the north-east, resulting in more precipitation settling on the water and thus freshwater getting added to the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the image below.


As above image also illustrates, this cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic could also result in more heat being carried into the Arctic Ocean, due to reduced heat transfer to the atmosphere from water on its way to the Arctic Ocean.


Above image illustrates how higher temperatures over the Arctic (top panel) can go hand in hand with the cold freshwater lid over the North Atlantic (second panel), with high sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America (third panel) and with higher precipitation over this cold freshwater lid (bottom panel).

The image below indicates that the cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic also goes hand in hand with falling salinity levels.



Precipitation over the North Atlantic is increasing, due to stronger winds and storms there, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the images below. Stronger winds, storms with high levels of precipitation and higher waves can all make the cold freshwater lid spread further across the North Atlantic. 


Above image show that waves as high as 17.81 m or 58.4 ft were forecast for the North Atlantic on February 1, 2016, and as high as 17.31 m or 56.8 ft for February 8, 2016.


Conclusion

In conclusion, the danger is that ever more heat will arrive in the Arctic Ocean. This will result in greater melting of the sea ice, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that makes that more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean (rather than being reflected back into space, as before).

On February 11, 2016, Arctic sea ice had - for this time of year - the lowest extent since satellite records started in 1979, as illustrated by the image below.

The biggest danger is that, as the Arctic Ocean continues to warm, huge amounts of methane will erupt abruptly from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, driving up temperatures over the Arctic dramatically and triggering ever more methane eruptions, resulting in a rapid escalation into runaway warming.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.



Over the past 12 months, global warming was felt most strongly over the Arctic Ocean. Over most parts of the Arctic...
Posted by Sam Carana on Thursday, February 11, 2016

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