Another Heatwave Hits Arctic

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As parts of Canada, Greenland and Russia are hit by -40 degrees temperatures (anomalies at the bottom end of the scale), parts of the Arctic are experiencing temperatures above freezing (anomalies at the top end of the scale), as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on image to enlarge ]
Temperatures in the Arctic are much higher than they used to be and this situation further accelerates warming in the Arctic, due to a number of feedbacks.

One such feedbacks has been coined the ‘open doors feedback’. Indeed, the situation is much like leaving the fridge door open. This allows cold air to more easily move out of the fridge, i.e. the Arctic, resulting in the cold temperatures over North America that have received extensive news coverage in the media. At the same time, warm air can move more easily into the fridge, i.e. the Arctic, and this is one of the reasons why the Arctic is hit by temperatures that are so much higher than what used to be normal.

The situation has been described in a number of earlier posts such as this one, as well in a recent interview with Jennifer Francis. As the Arctic warms more rapidly than the rest of the world, there's less temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator, resulting in the jet stream going around the globe at a lower speed with more elongated loops.

The left chart on above image shows such an elongated loop going north along the east coast of Greenland, then bending before Scandinavia and moving over the north of Greenland, then going around the North Pole and moving back to Scandinavia. This loop is not very visible on the chart, because the jet stream moves faster along straight tracks, and this chart highlights wind speed more than it highlights the path of the jet stream. Yet, the shape of this loop is very important, as it traps warmer air north of Greenland.

BTW, a weaker jet stream also elevates the chance of heat waves elsewhere, which can indirectly warm up the Arctic. Examples of this are heat waves over the Gulf Stream as it crosses the Atlantic Ocean, resulting in warmer water being carried into the Arctic Ocean, and heat waves over Siberia and North America, resulting in warming up of rivers that end in the Arctic Ocean.

Anyway, to get back to the current heatwave, there are a number of reasons why temperatures in the Arctic are so high at the moment. One of the biggest reasons is ocean heat, which has reached very high levels, especially in the North Atlantic, while the Gulf Stream keeps transporting warmer water from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean (i.e. water that is warmer than the water in the Arctic Ocean). This warms up the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in methane erupting from the seafloor, with a strong immediate local warming impact in the Arctic, thus further accelerating warming in the Arctic in another one of these self-reinforcing feedback loops, as pictured in the image below.



Further feedbacks that accelerate warming in the Arctic are discussed at the feedbacks page.

Without effective and comprehensive action, these feedbacks threaten to lead to runaway warming, i.e. abrupt climate change causing mass death and destruction, and resulting in extinction at massive scale, as depicted in the image below and as described in this earlier post.



In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.



Paul Lee Elevated to IEEE Fellow

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Paul Lee, ex-Kodak engineer, now with Exelis Geospatial Systems, Amityville, NY, has been elevated to IEEE Fellow Members "for contributions to the development of CMOS image sensor technology and the pinned photo-diode active pixel sensor." US5625210 patent "Active pixel sensor integrated with a pinned photodiode" by Paul Lee, Robert Guidash, Teh-Hsuang Lee, and Eric Stevens is one of Kodak's classics, and, quite possibly, the most often referred image sensor patent.
11:46 AM

Silicon Nanowires in Image Sensors

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Harward University published PhD Thesis "Vertical Silicon Nanowires for Image Sensor Applications" by Hyunsung Park. The thesis proposes to use Si nanowires of different diameter to create color filters. Oval wires can be used as polarization filters.

11:23 AM

Job Title: Lead/Principal Piping Engineer – Amec-Malaysia

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Job Title: Lead/Principal Piping Engineer Auto req ID:21740BR Employment Type Regular - Full Time Country:Malaysia Region: Kuala Lumpur Office Location: Kuala Lumpur Business Sector: Oil & Gas Business Operation: Asia Pacific Business Stream/Area Asia Are relocation funds available? No Piping Engineer Job Description Deliver all discipline activities to cost, schedule and

CAT-2014 might offer a sigh of relief but cut offs for B-Schools could go up!

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If there’s something that you would really want to know about the upcoming CAT-2014 examinations then it is none other than but the sea changes that have been confirmed about the myriad fronts. Rest assure- there’s no change in syllabus or the content, which means you can carry on your preparations with the same swing but a lot of changes surely went noticeable this time. Now the question that hits the box right on the first go is that how fair it would be for the aspirants to score good percentiles. And also it airs the question about the minimum cut off percentile for the top B-Schools in nation. Surprisingly the changes that have been incorporated are not a trivial one’s but it seems that they have altogether set a brand new scale for evaluations.
Changes are sometimes daunting but sometimes they are equally rewarding too. Like if you talk about the latest changes that have been called in the Common Admission Test then it can be clearly seen that the duration of examination has been outstretched from one hundred forty minutes to one hundred seventy minutes. Now this is surely a cherry on the cake and we shall discuss the same in brief now in order to understand what exactly these changes means to an aspirant.

Unfolded time gap means time management goes easy!
People called it a clever call by CAT when the time duration was revised followed by increased number of questions. Now that you have 30 minutes extra with you- the time allowed per question was automatically axed down from 2.3 minutes to 1.7 minutes. However, this could open more possibility and all that matters is speed, undoubtedly. So surely, striking out maximum number of questions in 170 minutes won’t be a child’s play.
High pressure mounting up every second!
With extra 30 minutes of time for examinations, longer duration will certainly call for a little bit of more practice. Mock tests series have really been proved beneficial in this very regard but one has to be really specific about the appropriate timing and closing a particular question in a given time frame. Certainly, one cannot master the art without even being pushed through some practices. Thus, your first hand encounter with the mock sessions will keep you mentally ready for all the upcoming.
Limited sessions to ensure quick wind up!
Earlier where the CAT was supposed to take place in 40 sessions, the CAT-2014 examination has curbed the same in just 4 sessions stretching over 2 days only. There have been a lot of say in this very regard but if you are really serious about belling the CAT then this year might hold something really good for you.

CAT 2013 Examinations:
Total time allotted: 140 minutes.
Number of questions in each section: 30 each in 2 sections.
CAT 2014 Examinations what’s new
Total time allotted: 170 minutes.
Number of questions in each section: 50 each in 2 sections.
Less time per question, which might probably mean a slight reduction in the level of toughness.

So, a new tweak in the CAT-2014 Examinations seems to be pretty promising and one can surely score a decent percentile with sincere and uncompromised efforts over the time. Nonetheless, it was a dual sided blade that was thrown openly in the air when IIMs allowed a switch between the sections. However, you have to have a razor sharp decision making ability in order to hit the right chord at just the right point of time. And also try to avoid wasting time on one section and killing time when you have an option of opting for comparatively easier questions in other sections. It’s a fair deal and with consistent efforts- who knows that you’re next in the IIMs shortlisted candidates list.

 Author Bio: Shadman Alvi is professional writer. Blogging and writing for myriad of social media platform is what excites him. He believes that newness and novelty are the two driving force that can make anything black and white- colorful. He enjoys experimenting with various techniques and implementing the same on print and web alike. If you like his work, feel free to catch him on LinkedIn.


ESPROS Announces BSI ToF Imager

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ESPROS announces epc660, a BSI 3D-TOF imager with a resolution of 320 x 240 pixels. epc660 is an integrated SoC combining high-QE BSI CCD pixel array and complete control logic to operate the device, an integrated LED driver, capable of driving more than 200mA peak current, and a high-speed 12-bit parallel video interface. The sensor speed is 66 TOF frames per second at QVGA resolution or up to 1000fps in "advanced operation modes." The advanced CCD pixel architecture is said to be the enabler for camera systems that can tolerate ambient light levels of up to 130Klux. Depending on the system design, a resolution in the millimeter range for distances up to 100 meters is said to be possible.

The epc660 features various modulation schemes on-chip, such as frequency hopping, random modulation, and CSMA/CD. There is also a dedicated modulation input that can be externally fed with any desired modulation signal.


Source: ESPROS Nov. 2014 newsletter.
11:30 AM

Application of Static Compensator to improve the Power Quality of Grid Connected Induction Generator Based Wind Farm

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Abstract-Due to large power demand and environmental issues, electrical power generation from renewable energy sources is receiving more attention. Wind energy generation systems are being integrated to power networks worldwide in increasing numbers. The power system is therefore facing new challenges due to intermittent nature of input source. One of these problems is voltage stability in wind farms equipped with squirrel cage based induction generators. Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices can be used for this problem. This paper, investigates the Static Synchronous Compensator (STATCOM) application to achieve continuous operation of wind turbine equipped with cage based induction generators during grid faults. The simulation has been done in MATLAB/Simulink framework. It is shown that a Static Synchronous Compensator (STATCOM) enhances voltage profile of power grid containing induction generator based wind farm.


This paper has demonstrated the effect of wind energy generation in power systems due to the uncertain characteristics of wind turbine system which causes variations in system voltage. Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) device such as Static Compensator "STATCOM" is power electronic based switch is used to control the reactive power and therefore bus voltages. Results are presented to show that the voltage at bus 25 drops to very low value of .91 pu due to insufficient reactive power but this bus voltage gets improved to 0.98 when STATCOM is incorporated in the system. Thus the voltage and hence power quality of the entire power system due to integration of STATCOM with wind generation is improved.

To get this IEEE paper contact us.

GA-based Congestion Management in Deregulated Power System using FACTS Devices || IEEE project

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Abstract--Congestion in the transmission lines is one of the technical problems that appear particularly in the deregulated environment. There are two types of congestion management methodologies to relieve it. One is non-cost free and the other is cost free methods. Among them later method relives the congestion technically whereas the former is related with the economics. In this dissertation congestion is relieved using cost free method. One of the cost free techniques is installing FACTS devices into the system. FACTS devices have a great flexibility that can control the active power, reactive power and voltage simultaneously. SVC and UPFC are two FACTS devices which can relieve the congestion in the transmission lines efficiently. As the FACTS devices are costly hence it is required to find the optimal location for FACTS devices. In congestion management, the objective function is nonlinear hence in solving this function Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique is used to obtain the global optimal solution. This method is tested on IEEE test bus system with FACTS devices and it can be extended to any practical system.

Power system facts
genetic algorithm flowchart

To relieve the congestion in the lines multiple multi-types off ACTS devices are located optimally using genetic algorithm. The following conclusions have been derived:
• With the above proposal it is possible for ISO to find global optimal schedule with the minimum total generation cost.
• In some transmission lines power flows with the OPF generation schedule are very high. Such extra power flow scan be reduced by installing FACTS devices.
• Line loading with SVC is less as compared with the line loading with UPFC.
• It has also been observed that proposed algorithm is also suitable for large systems with more number of FACTS devices, and the results so obtained are found to be encouraging.

To get IEEE paper for this project contact us

Control of a SVC for Power Factor Correction || IEEE Power electronics project

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Abstract-The question of voltage quality is rapidly increasing.New technologies are introduced and we are facing many new power quality requirements. Flexible alternating current transmission systems (FACTS) are modern devices in power transmission and grid stability. The paper deals with the modelling of a static var compensator (SVC). For this purpose Matlab/Simulink was used. SVC is designed for the implementation in a three-phase 22 kV power line model. Several simulations and tests have been performed in order to examine the function of the proposed control algorithm and SVC system as a whole.
Power electronics projects
At the present, with the increasing demand for the electrical energy and rapidly growing number of new production technologies, the voltage quality requirements are becoming stricter. In order to evaluate the level of the power quality, STN EN 50160 standard was introduced, which stipulates the limits for voltage quality

For more details contact us. 

World's Smallest Thermal Camera

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Norvegian-language TU Industry reports that Prox Dynamics' PD-100 world's smallest military grade UAV is equipped by the smallest to-date FLIR thermal camera weighting just 0.5 gram. A few months ago their smallest camera was 25 grams. The unit which is mounted in the PD 100 T weighs half a gram, says CTO and Prox Dynamics Entrepreneur Petter Muren. The whole drone with visible and thermal cameras weighs just 17.5g:


Thanks to SO for the link!
9:23 PM

Sony Achievements and Plans

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Sony has held an 2014 investor day today in Tokyo. Sony devices business presentation, shows impressive achievements and ambitious plans for a 3-year future:

11:14 AM

Samsung Samples 1.0um Pixel Products

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Samsung has held Investors Forum 2014 on Nov. 17 in NYC. Image sensor business update includes sampling of 1.0um pixel sensor:

9:31 PM

Sr.Stress Engineer – Jacobs India

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Job Title: Sr.Stress Engineer - Baroda Location: Baroda, India Primary Job Responsibilities Modeling and analysis of Piping Systems using CAESAR II (at least 10 years) with thorough knowledge of relevant codes. Knowledge and awareness of Design & Material codes/standards to meet project norms. Working independently or within a

Senior Piping Engineer-Nigeria WorleyParsons

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Senior Piping Engineer Primary Location : NGA-Lagos Job : Piping Schedule : Full-time Employment Type: Staff Job Level: Experienced Job Posting : Sep 19, 2014 Unposting Date : Dec 18, 2014 Reporting Manager Title: Engineering Manager Purpose You will provide piping engineering services to WorleyParsons, and its Customers and may provide technical support and supervision within the

How Neutral Is the Net?

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Earlier this month, President Obama asked the U. S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to classify the Internet as a public utility in order to preserve net neutrality.  While in principle the FCC is an independent regulatory authority, it usually takes the President seriously, and this proposed action led to both cheers and boos. 

The cheering came from mostly liberal observers who see threats to the Internet coming from internet service providers (ISPs), who have expressed a desire to discriminate (either favorably or unfavorably) among their customers.  One form of discrimination that has come up for discussion is that a big outfit such as Google or Facebook would pay ISPs for preferential treatment—a "fast lane" on the Internet so their websites would work faster compared to everyone else's.  Another idea, one that Comcast actually tried to implement a few years ago, is that certain types of Internet services that hog bandwidth (such as file sharing of music and videos) could be artificially slowed or discriminated against.  In that case, the FCC told Comcast to quit discriminating, and it did.  But more recently, similar attempts on the part of the FCC to enforce net neutrality have been struck down by federal courts, which said that the FCC doesn't have the legal authority to regulate the Internet in that way.  Hence the President's call to reclassify the Internet as a Title II public utility, which refers to a section in the FCC's enabling legislation that was originally intended to cover things like the telephone network.

And that leads to the boos, coming mainly from conservatives who see danger in letting the FCC treat the Internet basically the same way it treats the phone network.  Hidden on your phone bill is a little item called the Universal Service Fee.  On my cellphone bill it's $2.22 a month.  It was originally intended to provide subsidies for rural telephone service, but like most government fees and taxes, once it was planted as a tiny seed it put down roots and is now a mighty oak of revenue for the FCC, which supports itself entirely on fees.  If the phone network was not classified under Title II, the FCC could not assess this fee.  But such fees can be charged to a Title II service, which the Internet would become if the FCC does what the President asked it to.  That doesn't mean we would instantly start paying fees as soon as the FCC reclassified the Internet, but it does mean that they would have the legal right to.

From the viewpoint of consumers, it's hard to make an argument that a non-neutral net would be anything but bad.  The net (so to speak) effect of a non-neutral net would be to restrict access to something or other—either the firms that couldn't afford the extra fees that the ISPs want to charge the Googles for fast-lane services, or the types of services that cause ISPs headaches such as certain file-sharing activities.  But how neutral is the net today?

The picture is sometimes painted of a happy, absolutely free Internet world where equality reigns, versus a dismal, corporate-dominated few-rich among many-poor non-neutral Internet that the liberals warn us may happen if we don't guard net neutrality.  The facts are otherwise.  Right now the Internet is a great deal less neutral than it used to be.  If you don't belong to Facebook, for instance (as I don't), access to that world within a world of social media is highly restricted from you.  This has come about not because of anything an ISP has done, but because Facebook, in order to operate, requires certain information from you before you join, and hopes your signing up and consequent Facebook profile will attract other viewers.  Many of the various Google accounts and services work the same way.  My point is that there are huge regions on the Internet that are closed to you unless you pony up something to get into them (not necessarily cash), which is basically what the net-neutral advocates say will happen unless we preserve net neutrality.  But it already happens.

And what about people who live in areas that have slow or no access to the Internet?  It's not neutral to them.  Nobody has gone so far as to say every citizen of the U. S. has a right to X megabits per second access to the Internet.  But there was a time when the idea that everyone should have access to a telephone was a radical notion that telephone companies fought against, until the Bell System decided to join instead of fight and willingly put itself under the supervision of government authorities in exchange for promoting universal access. 

As I blogged in this space a few years ago, when you have a large network that thrives on maximizing the number of people connected to it, any artificial attempt to limit that access damages the system.  And over time, most such systems have ways of figuring this out, and tend to rid themselves of such restrictions.  But government fees and regulations are another matter.  It took years of court battles to free up the phone system from the old-style regulated monopoly pattern that was appropriate to the technology of 1945, but by 1980 was outmoded and needed to change. 

By and large, the Internet has stayed fairly neutral, not so much because the players all have a principled commitment to net neutrality, but because restrictions that move it in the non-neutral direction tend to harm the system as a whole.  My own inclination is to let things more or less alone, rather than reclassifying the Internet into a category that would make it vulnerable to a whole array of regulations that might be well-intended at the time, but could become albatrosses around the neck of a technology that has so far proved to be quite agile and dynamic.  But whatever happens, we should all realize that net neutrality is an ideal that has never been completely realized in practice.

Sources:  President Obama's statement on favoring FCC action to preserve net neutrality was announced on Nov. 10, 2014, and is available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/net-neutrality.  I referred to the conservative National Journal's piece on his move at http://www.nationaljournal.com/tech/obama-s-net-neutrality-plan-could-mean-new-internet-fees-20141120.  I also referred to the Wikipedia articles on network neutrality and the Federal Communications Commission.  My blog "Will the Net Stay Neutral if Google Doesn't Want It To?" appeared on Aug. 9, 2010.

Raspberry PI CarPC November 2014 updates

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Hi,

I have made a new release of the CarPC software for Raspberry PI.
Updates:
 - RDS radio support(new radio application)
 - new application for managing everything on GPIO which takes about 3% of cpu(gpio interrupts are now used instead of polling mechanism)
 - new FM Radio XBMC addon
 - kernel 3.17.0
 - optimised Navit and XBMC priorities to remove hang times

Minor issues:
[Radio FM addon]: I tried different ways to set the height of the height of an item in xbmcgui.ControlList but it seems that nothing is working(I have tried adding as a parameter and also using setItemHeight). If you have any other idea please let me know.

In order to have RDS working pin22(GPIO25) from RPI should be connected to Radio(SI4703) GPIO2 pin. This is the full schematic for one SI4703 radio module and two rotary encoders:

Grab the latest update from here.

Installation instructions are in the README inside the archive. Don't forget to(sudo apt-get update & sudo apt-get upgrade).
For any issues please use the Forum to avoid filling this blog with comments.


Have fun and keep your eyes on the road while driving!

IPCC too conservative?

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Earlier this month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its 5th Assessment Report (AR5), stating that: "Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to rise. Many aspects of climate change and associated impacts will continue for centuries, even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped. The risks of abrupt or irreversible changes increase as the magnitude of the warming increases."

That does sound scary. So, what would happen if the IPCC's projections are too conservative? Could humans, together with many other species, go extinct within the next few decades? What are the risks that this could eventuate? Below follows an assessment using graphics by Sam Carana.



1. Ocean Heat

Below is what the IPCC says:


Below is a graph produced by Sam Carana, based on NOAA data. For more background, see this earlier post.




2. Sea level Rise

The image below shows what the IPCC says.


If ocean heat will continues to rise as pictured in the image by Sam Carana, then thermal expansion alone will cause more sea level rise than foreseen by the IPCC. Furthermore, extensive melting on Antarctica and Greenland can result in additional sea level rise. Below is a sea level rise graph produced by Sam Carana, based on NASA/GSFCs data, as discussed in this earlier post.




3. Arctic Sea Ice

The image below shows what the IPCC says.


If ocean heat will continues to rise as pictured in the image by Sam Carana, then Arctic sea ice will disappear much earlier than anticipated by the IPCC. An exponential trendline based on sea ice volume observations shows that sea ice looks set to disappear in 2019, while disappearance in 2015 is within the margins of a 5% confidence interval, reflecting natural variability.


A linear trend would be inappropriate, given the growing impact of feedbacks that can each be expected to reinforce sea ice decline, while there can also be interaction between these feedbacks, further accelerating sea ice decline. Albedo change is one such feedback, but there are numerous other ones, such as storms that have more chance to grow stronger as the area with open water increases.

In conclusion, an exponential trendline is more appropriate than a linear trendline, as also illustrated by above comparison, which shows that a linear trendline has 9 years fall outside its 95% confidence ionterval, versus 4 years for an exponential trendline. as discussed at the FAQ page.

Rapid decline of the snow and ice cover on the Northern Hemisphere is furthermore supported by rapidly rising surface temperatures over the Arctic, as well as greater intensity of heatwaves. Below is what the IPCC says on this.


Before further discussing surface temperatures, let's look into one of the feedbacks that could hugely increase temperatures, methane.



4. Methane

The IPCC appears to underestimate of the amount of methane that is contained in sediments under the Arctic Ocean and prone to be released as temperatures rise, as discussed in this earlier post and in this earlier post.

The image below, based on data from the IPCC and the World Metereological Organization (WMO), with an added observation from a NOAA MetOp satellite image, illustrates the recent rise of methane levels and the threat that methane levels will continue to rise rapidly.



When looked at from a longer range of years, above image fits in the black square on the image below.



As ocean heat keeps increasing and warming in the Arctic keeps accelerating due to feedbacks such as Arctic sea ice decline, huge methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean threaten to push up methane levels even further. The image below shows exponential rise based on data of East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) releases alone, as discussed in an earlier post.


Non-linear rise is supported by the fact that methane's lifetime increases as more methane enters the atmosphere.




5. Surface Temperatures

The IPCC expects that, worst case, global average temperature could rise by 13 degrees Celsius by 2300, as illustrated by the image below.


The situation could be much worse than foreseen by the IPCC, due to the non-linear way feedbacks can hugely increase temperature rises.




The threat is that such rapid temperature rises will appear at first in hotspots over the Arctic and eventually around the globe, while also resulting in huge temperature swings that could result in depletion of supply of food and fresh water, as further illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post, and the image below, from another earlier post.


The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.




How melting Arctic ice is driving harsh winters

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by Nick Breeze

The very least 'global warming' could do for us is to give us warmer winters, right? Wrong, writes Nick Breeze, who met climate scientist and meteorologist Jennifer Francis in his attempt to understand the complex interactions of jet stream, polar vortex, the melting Arctic, and the extreme snowfall that's hitting the northeast US right now.

"Historic" snowfalls have the US northeast this week, with Buffalo, New York under an astonishing 2.4m (8ft) of snow - enough to cause some roofs to cave in under the pressure.

It's just the latest chapter in 2014 unprecedented range of weather extremes - from persistent storms that battered, and flooded much of the UK at the beginning of the year, before going on to record the hottest October since records began.

And in the US, extremes have ranged from California's record drought, to the early snows now under way in the northeast - and let's not forget the 'polar vortex' that hit much of the US in January, bringing Arctic conditions as far south as Texas and Florida, causing flights to be cancelled in Chicago as aviation fuel froze in the -38.3C (-37F) temperatures.



Scientists now have evidence that these persistent extreme weather patterns are increasing in their frequency, due to the rapid heating up of the Arctic that is changing the behaviour of the jet stream, and in turn, the polar vortex.

And Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, one of the leading US scientists studying the relationship between Arctic warming and changes in the jet stream, believes that it's thanks to 'global warming' that northern hemisphere weather is becoming more extreme - and it's not about to get any better.

Screenshot from Youtube video further below

The 'vast river of wind' that makes our weather

"The Arctic is generally very cold", she told me, "and the areas farther south are warm, and that difference in temperature between those two areas is really what fuels that vast river of wind moving high over our head that we call the jet stream."

"The jet stream in turn creates most of the weather that we feel all around the northern hemisphere and the middle latitudes, so anything that affects this jet stream is going to affect weather patterns. So as the Arctic warms up much faster than the areas farther south, we're seeing this temperature difference between these two regions get smaller."

The result of that, she explains, is that the atmospheric forces driving the jet stream's circular motion are getting smaller - and that means the winds themselves in the jet stream are getting weaker, and moving more slowly.

"When that happens, the jet stream tends to take a wavier path as it travels around the northern hemisphere and those waves are actually what create the stormy patterns and the nice weather patterns. As those waves get larger because of this weakening of those winds of the jet stream, they tend to move more slowly from west to east."

"That means it feels like the weather patterns are sticking around longer, because those patterns are moving much more slowly and this then makes it more likely to have the kind of extreme events that are related to persistent weather patterns."



Are critical findings influencing policy?

These changes in climate have huge implications. As Dr Francis points out, there are "people who worry about whether there is enough fresh water to supply cities, whether there is enough snowpack on mountains to supply reservoirs, and for agriculture ..."

"Drought and agriculture is a big problem. Storminess in certain areas is another big problem. Yes, it has a huge impact for a whole range of issues that affect the way we live."

It's no wonder then that Dr Francis and her colleagues have attracted the attention of President Obama's chief science advisor, Dr John Holdren.

Dr Holdren has been reporting directly to the President on the real time effects of climate change and is keen to understand what this new research tells us about the future impact of changes to the jet stream.

Asked about this sudden interest in her work from the US Presidency, Francis muses thoughtfully. "Yes, we've had a lot of interest from policy makers", she acknowledges.

"I think we're starting to make a lot of progress now in getting policymakers to understand that this is a big problem they have to face ... I think decision makers and the policymakers at the local level get it much better because they're already seeing effects on their local areas.

"Sea level rise is an obvious one. They're already seeing changes in drought and agricultural problems and dealing with fresh water issues. It is really at the local level that we're having more success."

New research supports the case that Arctic sea ice loss is driving climate changes

So to understand the changes in the jet stream it's important to research how the vast atmospheric river of weather above our heads is connected to other climate mechanisms.

"It appears that over the north Atlantic, and towards Asia, there's a mechanism that appears to be quite robust, and several groups have found this mechanism using completely different analysis techniques", says Francis referring to new research by colleagues at the University of Alaska that has emerged in the last couple of months.

"So what we're finding is that there's an area, north of Scandinavia in the Arctic, where the ice has been disappearing particularly rapidly. When that ice disappears ... there is unfrozen ocean underneath, and that ocean absorbs a lot more energy from the sun through the summertime. So it becomes very warm there."

"Then as the fall comes around, all that heat that's been absorbed all summer long, where the ice has retreated, is put back in the atmosphere and that creates a big bubble of hot air ... over that region where the ice was lost."

And in turn, that goes on to disrupt the circumpolar winds whose behaviour determines much the weather across the northern hemisphere.

The gigantic bubble of warm air "tends to create a northward bulge in the jet stream", and in turn, "that creates a surface high pressure area that circulates in the clockwise direction. That sucks cold air down from the Arctic over northern Eurasia, and that creates a southward dip in the jet stream."



The bulging jet stream disrupts the polar vortex

"So what we're getting is this big northward bulge up over Scandinavia and a southward dip over Asia ... creating, first the tendency for a larger wave in the jet stream, which tends to move more slowly, but also we're seeing this mechanism that creates these colder winters that have been observed over Central Asia."

"Once the jet stream gets into this wavier pattern, it sends wave energy up into the highest levels of the atmosphere, which is called the stratosphere, where we have the polar vortex, which is kind of similar to the jet stream but it's much higher up in the atmosphere and it travels much faster."

"So as that wave energy gets sent up from this larger wave below, up into the stratosphere, it breaks down that polar vortex so that it becomes wavier as well. That wavier polar vortex sends energy back down to the lower atmosphere and it creates an even wavier jet stream in February."

"So we're seeing this connection of mechanisms that starts with Arctic sea ice loss and it makes a wavier jet stream for different reasons all the way through winter."

Will the jet stream continue to cause changes in climate?

By identifying these mechanisms and linking them back directly to loss of the Arctic sea ice, Dr Francis and her colleagues are demonstrating how man-made global warming is creating feedbacks that are changing the climate conditions in the northern hemisphere - and not for the better.

It may be counterintuitive, and it when it first happened it took scientists by surprise - but now it looks like this is one of the most important ways in which 'global warming' is hitting North America. Melting ice in the Arctic Ocean is indirectly pushing frigid Arctic air south across the continent, creating the perfect conditions for massive snowfall.

Which is all very well ... but what's coming next? "We are using these climate models, or computer simulations ... to try and project what we're expecting to see happen in the future, as greenhouse gases continue to increase.

"The early indications are that these large wavy patterns in the jet stream are going to become more frequent in the future, as far as we can tell. It is preliminary research that I haven't published yet but it does look as if they are going to increase."



Nick Breeze is a film maker and writer on climate change and other environmental topics. He has been interviewing a range of experts relating to the field of climate change and science for over four years. These include interviews with Dr James Hansen, Professor Martin Rees, Professor James Lovelock, Dr Rowan Williams, Dr Natalia Shakhova, Dr Michael Mann, Dr Hugh Hunt, among others.

Additional articles can also be read on his blog Envisionation.

Jennifer Francis is a research professor at the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University, where she studies Arctic climate change and the link between Arctic and global climates. She has authored more than 40 peer-reviewed publications on these topics. She was also the co-founder of the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative.

Article earlier posted at TheEcologist.org




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Lübeck, Germany-based gesture recognition company Gestigon announces it has closed a Series A funding round with a 7-digit-USD financing 10 days ago. The company has been founded in 2011 as a University of Lübeck spin-off, and now employs 21 people in offices in Lübeck, Germany and Sunnyvale, CA.

Gartner's 2014 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies maps gesture control as a maturing up technology with its plateau of productivity to be reached in the next 2-5 years:

8:23 AM

Intel Promotes 3D Camera Technologies

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Intel publishes Youtube videos promoting its Realsense 3D camera and associated technology (video 1, video 2):




Update: WSJ quotes Kirk Skaugen, SVP in charge of Intel's PC chip business, saying "We are planning to be the number-one 3-D camera manufacturer."
9:36 PM

Ocean Temperature Rise Continues

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Ocean Temperature Rise

Of all the excess heat that results from people's emissions, 93.4% goes into oceans. Accordingly, the temperature of oceans has risen substantially.

NOAA analysis shows that the most recent 12-month period, November 2013–October 2014, broke the record (set just last month) for the all-time warmest 12-month period in the 135-year period of record. The global oceans were the warmest on record for October. For January–October, the average global sea surface temperature was also record high.


The danger is that ocean temperatures will continue to rise, especially in the North Atlantic, and that the Gulf Stream will keep carrying ever warmer water from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, threatening to unleash huge methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean's seafloor, in turn causing even higher temperatures and more extreme weather events, wildfires, etc.


High Methane Levels

High methane levels were recorded over the Arctic Ocean in October, as discussed in this earlier post, and were sustained in November, as discussed in this post. Methane levels as high as 2717 ppb were recorded on November 16, 2014, p.m, by the MetOp-1 satellite at 469 mb (i.e. 19,820 ft or 6,041 m altitude), as the image below shows.

Methane levels as high as 2549 ppb were recorded on November 19, 2014, p.m, by the MetOp-2 satellite at 586 mb (i.e. 14,385 ft or 4,384 m altitude), as the image below shows.

Above image further confirms earlier indications that these high methane levels do indeed result from large methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

Greenhouse gas levels in general are very high over the Arctic, as earlier discussed in a recent post and as illustrated by the image below, showing carbon dioxide levels as high as 420 ppm at high latitudes, while the global mean was 403 ppm, on November 19, 2014, p.m., at 945 mb (i.e. 1,916 ft or 584 m altitude).


As said, sustained instances of large abrupt methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean threaten to strongly accelerate warming in the Arctic even further, in turn resulting in ever more methane being released, as illustrated in the image below, from an earlier post.


Self-reinforcing Feedback Loops



Such methane eruptions are part of a number of self-reinforcing feedback loops that can strongly accelerate warming in the Arctic. Above image, from an earlier post, illustrates two such feedbacks, i.e. albedo changes due to snow and ice demise, and methane releases. Further feedbacks are described in this post and this post, and in the image below.

For a discussion of these and further feedbacks, see this page at the Climate Plan blog 
The threat is that such rapid temperature rises will appear at first in hotspots over the Arctic and eventually around the globe, while also resulting in huge temperature swings that could result in depletion of supply of food and fresh water, as further illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post, and the image below, from another earlier post.
[ click on image at original post to enlarge ]


IPCC warnings not strong enough



In above paragraph, the IPCC warns about the risk of methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean further accelerating global warming. While the IPCC does model for a temperature rise that could exceed 12 degrees Celsius in a 'business as usual' scenario (i.e. without action taken), the IPCC does not anticipate that such a rise could occur before the year 2250, as illustrated by the image below.


The situation could be much worse than foreseen by the IPCC, due to a number of reasons, including:
  1. The non-linear way feedbacks can hugely increase temperature rises.
  2.  The IPCC's underestimation of the amount of methane contained in sediments under the Arctic Ocean and prone to be released as temperatures rise. Shakhova et al. estimate the accumulated methane potential for the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) alone as follows:
    - organic carbon in permafrost of about 500 Gt;
    - about 1000 Gt in hydrate deposits; and
    - about 700 Gt in free gas beneath the gas hydrate stability zone.
    Back in 2008, Shakhova et al. considered release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time.
    Furthermore, mantel methane could add to our predicament, as discussed in an earlier post.
  3. Back in 2002, Malcolm Light already warned that seismic events could trigger destabilization of methane hydrates. Furthermore, huge temperature swings can combine with pressure swings and storms, and with swings between expansion and contraction of soil and ice, resulting in severe shocks to ecosystems, as described in an earlier post
  4. The IPCC's ignoring of large methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Oceans and the resulting growth of mean global methane levels at higher altitudes, as discussed in an earlier post.
Steven Sherwood et al. wrote back in 2010 that peak heat stress, quantified by wet bulb temperature, across diverse climates today never exceeds 31 degrees Celsius (see also this update). Some may believe that this doesn't apply to the Arctic and the higher altitudes in mountain regions. However, at the June Solstice the amount of solar radiation received in the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth, An increased occurence and intensity of heatwaves could expose large areas of the Arctic and mountain regions to sustained heatwaves exceeding peak heat stress temperatures. In addition, ocean acidification and oxygen depletion in the Arctic Ocean would make it hard for fish, seals, polar bears and further wildlife to survive. Furthermore, the short growth season combined with a long, cold winter limits vegetation in the Arctic, while ecosystems are also becoming increasingly exposed to wild weather swings and wildfires.


Risk Assessment

When taking above points into acount, an absence of action seems to guarantee human extinction by the year 2050. Little action will be ‘too little, too late’ and will merely delay human extinction by a few years, as illustrated by the graph below.


The graph identifies the years 2030 and 2040 as critical. Beyond the year 2030, the risk that humans will go extrinct grows larger than 1% in the absence of action. By the year 2040, the risk of human extinction will have increased substantially, especially if no action will have been taken, but also if too little action will have been taken up to 2040, while even with the best possible programs put in place by the year 2015, there will be a 2% risk of human extinction by 2040, e.g. due to war over what action to take, or due to political opposition or errors making such programs ineffective or even counter-productive.

In conclusion, it is highly likely that the risk of human extinction already now is intolerably high and rising with every moment passing with little no action taken to reduce the risk. This calls for comprehensive and effective action, as further discussed at the Climate Plan blog.


References

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WGI Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Final Draft (7 June 2013), page 168.
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter02.pdf

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WGI Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Final Draft (7 June 2013), Figure 12.5.
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter12.pdf

- An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress - by Steven C. Sherwood & Matthew Huber
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/04/26/0913352107.full.pdf

- Ocean Temperature Rise - by Sam Carana
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/10/ocean-temperature-rise.html

- Methane release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the Potential for Abrupt Climate Change - by Natalia Shakhova & Igor Semiletov
http://symposium2010.serdp-estcp.org/content/download/8914/107496/version/3/file/1A_Shakhova_Final.pdf

- Anomalies of methane in the atmosphere over the East Siberian shelf: Is there any sign of methane leakage from shallow shelf hydrates? - by Shakhova, Semiletov, Salyuk & Kosmach  http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf

- Mantle Methane - by Malcolm Light
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/02/mantle-methane.html

- Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes - by Jennifer A. Francis and S.J. Vavrus, in: Geophysical Research Letters 39 (6):. doi:10.1029/2012GL051000
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/abstract

- Near-Term Human Extinction - by Sam Carana
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/04/near-term-human-extinction.html

- Warm waters threaten to trigger huge methane eruptions from Arctic Ocean seafloor - by Sam Carana
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/08/warm-waters-threaten-to-trigger-huge-methane-releases-from-arctic-ocean-seafloor.html

- How many deaths could result from failure to act on climate change? - by sam Carana
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/05/how-many-deaths-could-result-from-failure-to-act-on-climate-change.html

- Methane linked to Seismic Activity in the Arctic - by Malcolm P. Light & Sam Carana
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-activity.html

- Wild Weather Swings - by Sam Carana
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/10/wild-weather-swings.html

- Four Hiroshima bombs a second: how we imagine climate change - by Sam Carana
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/four-hiroshima-bombs-second-how-we-imagine-climate-change.html

- Polar jet stream appears hugely deformed
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/12/polar-jet-stream-appears-hugely-deformed.html

- Near-Term Human Extinction
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/04/near-term-human-extinction.html


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