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Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens

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The image below compares the Arctic sea ice thickness on July 14, 2012 (left panel) and on July 14, 2015 (right panel), using Naval Research Laboratory images.

The Naval Research Laboratory's 30-day animation below shows how this situation developed, ending with a forecast for July 17, 2015, run on July 9, 2015.

The dramatic decline of the sea ice, especially north of North America, is the result of a combination of factors, including:

very high levels of greenhouse gases over the Arctic Ocean
very high levels of ocean heat
heatwaves over North America and Siberia extending high air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean
wildfires triggered by these heatwaves resulting in darkening compounds settling on snow and ice
very warm river water running into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.

With still two months of melting to go before the sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum for 2015, the threat of sea ice collapse is ominous. The Arctic-News Blog has been warning for years about the growing chance of a collapse of the sea ice, in which case huge amounts of sunlight that previously were reflected back into space, as well as heat that previously went into melting the ice, will then instead have to be absorbed by the water, resulting in a dramatic rise of sea surface temperatures.

The image below shows the already very high sea surface temperature anomalies as at July 10, 2015.

More open water will then come with an increased chance of storms that can cause high sea surface temperatures to be mixed down all the way to seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which in many cases is less than 50 m (164 ft) deep.

Meanwhile, ocean heat is accumulating off the coast of North America, as illustrated by the image below showing sea surface temperature as high as 31.8°C (89.24°F) on July 8-9, 2015.

Massive amounts of ocean heat will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean over the next few months. The combined result of high sea surface temperatures being mixed down to the seafloor and the ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can be expected to result in dramatic methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor by October 2015.

Currently, methane levels are high, especially north of Greenland, as illustrated by the image below showing that on July 10, 2015 (am), levels as high as 2416 parts per billion were recorded at 6,041 m (19,820 ft) altitude, while mean methane levels also reached 1831 parts per billion at this altitude.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.

ARCTIC SEA ICE COLLAPSE THREATENSThis image compares the Arctic sea ice thickness on July 14, 2012 (left panel) and on...
Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, July 10, 2015

Arctic Methane Skyrocketing

The map below shows observatories in the Arctic.

'Arctic methane skyrocketing' is the title of a video by Paul Beckwith discussing recent rises in methane levels in the Arctic.

Paul's description: "I discuss how ground level flask measurements of methane have been spiking upwards over the last few years. I analyze the implications to the breakdown of climate stability, causing jet stream fracturing and weather regime change. I believe that this behaviour will rapidly worsen as Arctic temperature amplification continues, leading our planet to a much warmer and unrecognizable climate over the next 5 to 10 years."

Below are some NOAA images showing methane levels (surface flasks) recorded at Arctic observatories.

Below is an image showing hourly average in situ measurements at Barrow, Alaska, including one very high reading, from an earlier post.

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic on May 30, 2015.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan page.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic on May 30, 2015. From the post: 'Arctic Methane Skyrocketing' http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/05/arctic-methane-skyrocketing.html
Posted by Sam Carana on Sunday, May 31, 2015

Mackenzie River Warming

On May 12, 2015, a temperature of 80.1°F (or 26.7°C) was recorded in the north of Canada, at a location just north of latitude 63°N.

High temperatures in such locations are very worrying, for a number of reasons, including:

They are examples of heatwaves that can increasingly extend far to the north, all the way into the Arctic Ocean, speeding up warming of the Arctic Ocean seabed and threatening to unleash huge methane eruptions.
They set the scene for wildfires that emit not only greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, but also pollutants such as carbon monoxide (that depletes hydroxyl that could otherwise break down methane) and black carbon (that when settling on ice causes it to absorb more sunlight).
They cause warming of the water of rivers that end up in the Arctic Ocean, thus resulting in additional sea ice decline and warming of the Arctic Ocean seabed.

The image below shows increased sea surface temperature anomalies in the area of the Beaufort Sea where the Mackenzie River is flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

The image below further illustrates the situation, with sea ice thickness (in m) down to zero where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean.

Things look set to get worse. The forecast for May 16, 2015, shows high temperatures extending all the way to the coast where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean.

Updates follow below:
Alaska is hit by high temperatures as well. The image below shows temperatures as high as 25.3°C (77.54°F) at a location just north of latitude 66°N in Alaska.

Below a forecast for May 23, 2015, showing temperatures in Alaska and neighboring parts of Canada that are 36°F (20°C) higher than they used to be (1979-2000 baseline).

The image below shows that temperatures as high as 30.2°C (86.36°F) are forecast for Alaska for May 23, 2015, along the path of the Yukon River, at a latitude of ~66 degrees North (65.98°N).

Furthermore, temperatures as high as 24.2°C (75.56°F) are forecast for the coast, close to where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean. Off the coast, over the water of the Arctic Ocean, temperatures as high as 8°C (46.4°F) are forecast, for a location just north of latitude 70°N, while temperatures as high as 15°C (59°F) are forecast for a location over the water of the Arctic Ocean closer to land.

As the image below illustrates, the jet stream is forecast to move across Alaska on May 23, 2015, bringing warm air into the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean. The image gives the jet stream's speed at three locations, i.e. the jet stream is forecast to reach speeds as high as 262 km/h (162.8 mph, bottom green circle) over the Pacific Ocean, 165 km/h (102.5 mph, middle green circle) south of Alaska, and 172 km/h (106.9 mph, top green circle) over the Arctic Ocean.

Looking at salinity is a way to see the impact of rivers. The animation below, created with Naval Research Laboratory images over the period May 16 to 20, 2015 (run on May 18, 2015), shows salinity levels falling where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean.

Salinity works in several ways. Falling salinity will increase the temperature at which the sea ice melts. However, such an increase can only temporarily hold back melting, as illustrated by the combination image below, comparing sea ice thickness between May 7 and May 18, 2015.

Let's have a look at some of the feedbacks that haven't been discussed much in earlier posts. The potential for rivers to contribute to sea ice decline is depicted in the diagram below (feedback #24), i.e. extreme weather causing warming of rivers that flow into the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, evaporation rates are higher over fresh water surfaces than over saline water surfaces (feedback #26) and the resulting increase in water vapor and clouds contributes to further warming (feedback #25), while rain falling on the sea ice will also cause its albedo to decline. The latter feedback also closes some loops. in that sea ice retreat results in more open water, in turn resulting in more water vapor and clouds.

Another feedback is that, as more sea ice turns into open water, less infrared radiation will be emitted and sent out into space, since open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23). Furthermore, as sea ice declines, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating (feedback #22).

For more discussion of these feedbacks, see the feedbacks page. In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan page.

Forecast for May 16, 2015, showing high temperatures extending all the way to the coast where the Mackenzie River flows...
Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, May 15, 2015

Warm water flowing into Arctic Ocean

by Harold Hensel

For the first time in thousands of years, warm water is flowing into the Arctic Ocean. Warm water from the deep ocean is showing up on surface images. There is no way to put this into the context of 'normal.' Historic temperatures have kept the Arctic frozen on an even keel for thousands of years. Even if there was a 'natural cycle' it has been completely overridden by the astonishing amount of pollution that is going into the atmosphere.

Over 90 percent of Earth's energy imbalance has been going into the oceans, almost unnoticed by people keeping track of the temperatures in the atmosphere. The warmer ocean water is going through the Bering Strait and into the Chukchi Sea, Barents Sea, East Siberian Sea and worst of all, the Laptev Sea.

The Gakkel Ridge crosses the Arctic Ocean from Greenland to the Laptev Sea, see earlier post

There are methane hydrate concentrations in all of these areas up to 1,500 feet deep for miles and miles. There are fractures here that give mantel methane a route to the surface that have been safely sealed by ice. The hydrates and seals are thawing.

In 2013, huge amounts of methane erupted over the Gakkel Ridge and
the Laptev Sea in October, with levels as high as 2662 ppb on November 9.
In 2014, levels over 2400 ppb were recorded on September 14, 15 and 16.

On the Greenland side, warm water is flowing into the Arctic from the Labrador, Greenland and Norway seas. The international SWERUSs-C3 expedition on the icebreaker Oden is recording 'mega flares' of methane. There are many factors involved in warming the Arctic Ocean, but warm water flowing into it is one of the worst.

Harold Hensel
Cedar Rapids

State Of Extreme Emergency

by Malcolm Light

PRESIDENT OBAMA MUST DECLARE A STATE OF EXTREME NATIONAL EMERGENCY AND CEASE ORCHESTRATING A WAR WITH RUSSIA. HE MUST RECALL HIS ENTIRE ARMY AND NAVY PERSONNEL TO THE UNITED STATES TO BEGIN A MASSIVE CONVERSION OF THE US ENERGY SYSTEM TO SOLAR AND WIND POWER. THIS CONVERSION MUST RESULT IN ALL 600 COAL POWER STATIONS AND NUCLEAR STATIONS BEING COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN IN THE NEXT 5 TO 10 YEARS. ALL SURFACE TRANSPORT BOTH PRIVATE AND PUBLIC MUST BE ENTIRELY ELECTRIFIED AND AIR TRANSPORT CONVERTED TO METHANE OR HYDROGEN FUEL. IF THIS IS NOT DONE, HUMANITY WILL BE FACING TOTAL EXTINCTION IN AN ARCTIC METHANE FIRESTORM BETWEEN 2040 AND 2050.

The US and Canada must cut their global emissions of carbon dioxide by 90% in the next 10 to 15 years, otherwise they will be become an instrument of mass destruction of the Earth and its entire human population. Recovery of the United States economy from the financial crisis has been very unsoundly based by the present Administration on an extremely hazardous "all of the above" energy policy that has allowed continent wide gas fracking, coal and oil sand oil mining and the return of widespread drilling to the Gulf. Coast. This large amount of fossil fuel has to be transported and sold which has caused extensive spills, explosions and confrontations with US citizens over fracking and the Keystone XL pipeline. Gas fracking is in the process of destroying the entire aquifer systems of the United States and causing widespread earthquakes. The oil spills are doing the same to the surface river run off.

We are now facing a devastating final show down with Mother Nature, which is being massively accelerated by the filthy extraction of fossil fuels by US and Canada by gas fracking, coal and tar sand mining and continent wide bitumen transport. The United States and other developed nations made a fatal mistake by refusing to sign the original Kyoto protocols. The United States and Canada must now cease all their fossil fuel extraction and go entirely onto renewable energy in the next 10 to 15 years otherwise they will be guilty of planetary ecocide - genocide by the 2050's.

The volume transport of the Gulf Stream has increased by three times since the 1940's due to the rising atmospheric pressure difference set up between the polluted, greenhouse gas rich air above North America and the marine Atlantic Air. The increasingly heated Gulf Stream with its associated high winds and energy rich weather systems then flows NE to Europe where it recently pummeled Great Britain with catastrophic storms. Other branches of the Gulf Stream then enter the Arctic and disassociate the subsea Arctic methane hydrate seals on subsea and deep high - pressure mantle methane reservoirs below the Eurasian Basin- Laptev Sea transition. This is releasing increasing amounts of methane into the atmosphere producing anomalous temperatures, greater than 20°C above average. Over very short time periods of a few days to a few months the atmospheric methane has a global warming potential from 1000 to 100 times that of carbon dioxide.

There are such massive reserves of methane in the subsea Arctic methane hydrates, that if only a few percent of them are disassociated, they will lead to a jump in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere by 10°C and produce a "Permian" style major extinction event which will kill us all. The whole northern hemisphere is now covered by a thickening atmospheric methane global warming veil that is spreading southwards at about 1 km a day and it already totally envelopes the United States. A giant hole in the equatorial ozone layer has also been discovered in the west Pacific which acts like an elevator transferring methane from lower altitudes to the stratosphere where it already forms a dense equatorial global warming stratospheric band that is spreading into the Polar regions.

During the last winter, the high Arctic winter temperatures and pressures have displaced the normal freezing Arctic Air south into Canada and the United States producing never before seen, freezing winter storms and massive power failures. When the Arctic ice cap finally melts towards the end of next year, the Arctic sea will be aggressively heated by the sun and the Gulf Stream. The cold Arctic air will then be confined to the Greenland Ice cap and the hot globally warmed Arctic air with its methane will flow south to the United States to further heat up the Gulf Stream, setting up an anticlockwise circulation around Greenland. Under these circumstances Great Britain and Europe must expect even more catastrophic storm systems, hurricane force winds and massive flooding after the end of next year due to a further acceleration in the energy transport of the Gulf Stream. If this process continues unchecked the mean temperature of the atmosphere will rise a further 8° centigrade and we will be facing global deglaciation, a more than 200 feet rise in sea level rise and a major terminal extinction event by the 2050's.

Post by Zaven Ohannessian.

Very warm waters are invading the Arctic Ocean

Global mean methane levels as high as 1836 parts per billion were recorded at several altitudes on August 24, 2014. Meanwhile, the Arctic Ocean continues to warm up. As the image below shows, the ocean heat is felt strongly on the Northern Hemisphere.

Very warm waters from the North Pacific and the North Atlantic Oceans are now invading the Arctic Ocean. Never before in human history have these waters been this warm. In the Arctic Ocean, this is causing very high sea surface temperatures, as shown on the image below.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The very high temperatures threaten to trigger all kinds of feedbacks, as described in the image below.

Feedbacks in the Arctic

The big danger is that, as the seabed warms up, methane will erupt from hydrates in sediments under the Arctic Ocean. The situation is dire and calls for comprehensiev and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.

Post by Sam Carana.

Warm waters threaten to trigger huge methane eruptions from Arctic Ocean seafloor

The evidence of abrupt high methane releases in the Arctic Ocean is accumulating. The graph below shows in situ methane measurements taken at the Barrow Observatory, including recent levels as high as close to 2200 parts per billion (ppb).

Satellite data picture a similarly dire situation. Global mean methane levels as high as 1831 ppb were recorded on the morning of July 30, 2014, while peak methane levels as high as 2330 ppb were recorded that morning. More recently, peak methane levels as high as 2522 ppb were recorded (on August 2, 2014).

IPCC/NOAA figures suggest that methane levels were rising by some 5 to 6 ppb annually, reaching 1814 ppb in 2013. While methane levels at lower altitudes have indeed shown little rise, much larger rises have been recorded at higher altitudes, as illustrated by the image below.

These high methane levels recorded at higher altitudes appear to be caused by the huge quantities of methane released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean during the period from end 2013 to early 2014. This methane has meanwhile risen to higher altitudes, while also descending to lower latitudes, wreaking havoc on weather patterns around latitude 60° North.

The releases of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean were caused by water that had warmed up strongly off the east coast of North America from June 2013. It took some months for this warm water to be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean.

Meanwhile, very high sea surface temperatures are recorded in the Arctic Ocean, as above image shows, while warm water is carried into the Arctic Ocean by the Gulf Stream, as illustrated by the image below.

As said, the situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.

Post by Sam Carana.

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